THE PULSE OF GLOBAL MACRO THE PERSPECTIVE OF SOVEREIGNTY
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BMK Macro
Dashboard
This is the biggest macro catalyst of 2026 if it closes. Pakistan's mediators confirmed a deal is potentially within 24 hours. Trump says the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately upon signing. A signing ceremony in Geneva is being planned — potentially attended by VP JD Vance next week at the G7 summit in France.
Israel is pressing the US to prevent unfreezing Iranian assets as part of any deal. Netanyahu said the war "has not yet ended." Sticking points remain. Until the Strait is physically open and oil is flowing — the deal is not done. Watch oil this weekend as the real confirmation signal.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in May 22 on the closest Senate confirmation vote in modern Fed history — 54 to 45. Eleven days later he hired Paul Winfree — the author of the Federal Reserve chapter in Project 2025 — as an interim policy adviser. Winfree's blueprint calls for dropping the Fed's employment mandate entirely. Single mandate. Inflation only.
Warsh also wants to pare the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet — adding more Treasury supply to a bond market already showing 18-year high yields on the 30-year. The internal Fed split is now documented — the April FOMC was an 8-4 dissent, the most divided vote since 1992.
Gold pulled back below $4,200 from its $4,549 all-time high. The driver is mechanical — rate hike expectations increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. When traders price in a hike, dollar-denominated yield becomes more attractive. Gold temporarily steps back.
This is not a reversal. This is the correction that creates the next entry. The structural bid is unchanged — central banks buying at record pace, M2 money supply just hit an all-time high of $22.7 trillion, and the debt machine is still running at full speed adding to the debasement case daily.
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.59%. The 30-year just hit 5.2% — an 18-year high not seen since 2008. The red zone we mapped months ago starts at 5% on the 10-year. We are 41 basis points away.
Simultaneously the M2 money supply just printed a new all-time high of $22.7 trillion. More money being created. Higher yields demanded to hold the debt. These two forces are compressing the system from both ends simultaneously.
The ceasefire is the hinge event. Everything below reflects the most likely path if the deal closes in the next 24-72 hours. If it collapses, the risk-off version of every scenario activates.
June 13–14 — Ceasefire Decision Window: Pakistan says deal within 24 hours. Trump says Strait reopens immediately. This is the binary event that reprices every asset on the board simultaneously. Watch oil as the confirmation.
Mid-June — G7 Summit, France: Trump and Vance attending. Geneva signing ceremony for Iran deal potentially happening here. Geopolitical realignment on display.
June — Warsh First FOMC as Chair: His first meeting as Fed Chair. The market will be reading every word for signals on balance sheet reduction timeline, employment mandate future, and rate path. Most watched FOMC in years.
Late June — CPI Print: If oil drops on ceasefire this week, the June CPI reading in late July will show the first meaningful inflation relief in months. That is the data that opens the door to rate cut visibility returning.
Ongoing — JGB Yield Watch: Bank of Japan is the wild card nobody is fully pricing. 29-year high JGB yields. BOJ board members calling for immediate hikes. Every BOJ meeting is now as important as every Fed meeting.
The ceasefire is potentially signing within 24 hours. Oil is dropping. Markets are rallying. Most people will read those headlines and think the crisis is over. The Scorpio read asks a different question: what does the board look like after the war ends?
The Iran conflict was a symptom not a cause. The $39 trillion debt is still there. The M2 money supply just hit $22.7 trillion — an all-time high printed this week. The 30-year Treasury yield is at an 18-year high. The new Fed Chair hired a Project 2025 author to restructure the institution 11 days into the job. USDJPY is still above 160 with JGB yields at 29-year highs. China has reduced its Treasury holdings from 29% to 7.3% over 15 years and is not reversing that trajectory.
The war ending removes the acute oil inflation pressure. It does not remove the structural monetary crisis that was building long before February 28. The debasement thesis does not require the Strait to be closed. It requires only that the debt machine keeps running — and it will keep running regardless of what gets signed in Geneva.
The ceasefire is not the end of the macro story. It is the reset of the board for the next chapter. Position for what comes after the relief rally — not just the rally itself. Hard assets. Dollar weakness. The long game. That is where the real wealth transfer plays out.
Every price on this dashboard is a signal. Every central bank decision is a move. Every geopolitical disruption is a hand being played by someone with a seat at the table you weren't invited to — until now. The board is not random. It never was. Learn its language, or be spent by those who already have.